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NEW: Sabato’s Crystal Ball Moves NCSEN to To ‘Toss-Up’ Following Third Consecutive Poll With Cal Cunningham Beating Thom Tillis

Sabato’s Crystal Ball today moved the North Carolina Senate race from leans Republican to toss-up. 

This marks the second ratings change in two weeks on the heels of three polls that show Cal Cunningham beating Senator Thom Tillisand news that Cal “has raised more money at this point in the race than Tillis has in 2013.”

Kyle Kondik notes that Tillis “appears to be sweating” his primary “challenge from businessman Garland Tucker (R),” having dropped half of his cash on hand “on a pre-primary ad buy and is highlighting his backing from Trump.”

Sabato’s Crystal Ball: The Senate: Ratings Changes and the Shadow of Impeachment

By Kyle Kondik – October 3, 2019

Key Points:

  • Two other vulnerable Senate Republicans, Sens. Martha McSally (R-AZ) and Thom Tillis (R-NC), seem to be more clearly supportive of the president in the impeachment battle in the early going, and part of the reason may be that they both have at least somewhat serious primary challengers.
  • Tillis, in particular, appears to be sweating the challenge from businessman Garland Tucker (R), as the incumbent has dropped $2 million on a pre-primary ad buy and is highlighting his backing from Trump.
  • McSally was already firmly in the Toss-up column, and we’re moving Tillis to that rating too. His personal favorability numbers are not good, and his primary challenge is pushing him to embrace Trump strongly, which may or may not be the right move in the long term.

Read more here