News

Join the Campaign

10.12.19

Inside Elections Moves NC Senate Race From Tilt R to Toss-Up Following Three Consecutive Polls With Cal Cunningham Beating Thom Tillis

Inside Elections has moved North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race from Tilts Republican to Toss-Up, the latest sign of momentum for Cal Cunningham and troubling news for Senator Thom Tillis.

This marks the third ratings change in a month following three polls that show Cal Cunningham beating Tillis, and a new poll that has the Senator’s approval rating at just 22 percent in North Carolina

Last week, Cal’s campaign announced it had raised $1 million in its third quarter, and “has raised more money at this point in the race than Tillis has in 2013.

Inside Elections noted that Senator Tillis “has an image problem,” while acknowledging that “Cunningham’s profile will help him over-perform the eventual Democratic presidential nominee, especially because of the appeal of his service in the Army,” calling him a “frontrunner.”

Read more below.

Inside Elections: 2020 Senate Overview (Oct. 11, 2019): North Carolina

October 11, 2019

Key Points: 

  • On the Democratic side, Cal Cunningham is the frontrunner for the nomination…
  • It’s not even Fall yet, but Republicans have already spent a few million dollars on the race. Garland Tucker…has spent nearly $1 million on cable in his bid for the GOP nomination. In response, Tillis has spent (or reserved) more than $2 million for television ads through next year’s primary.
  • Despite his vulnerabilities, Tillis still has a path to victory that includes appealing to traditional Republicans in the suburbs and benefitting from Trump’s endorsement to turn out the GOP base.
  • Democrats believe that Cunningham could cut into both of those groups, while Trump’s presence on the ballot also helps turn out nonwhite and younger voters who are more likely to participate in a presidential year than a midterm.
  • Democrats believe that Cunningham’s profile will help him over-perform the eventual Democratic presidential nominee, especially because of the appeal of his service in the Army.

 Read more here